Lessons from China: Five stages of COVID-19 impact on markets

I left Shanghai, China on 21 January, just as the initial virus news was spreading in the Chinese media but had not quite reached international news outlets. I spent the following two weeks in Hong Kong as the city of Wuhan was locked down and medical professionals in Hong Kong threatened to strike unless borders …

Alphabet (Google) – Long Investment Thesis (6 Nov 2019)

"In investing, what is comfortable is rarely profitable." - Robert Arnott. GOOGL’s business consists ~85% comfort and ~15% innovation. At the current valuation, this may seem an uncomfortable proposition for a value focused investor, but the ~15% has the potential to more than quadruple over the next 10 years. Management has shown the Alphabet innovation …

Tiffany & Co. – Long Investment Thesis (27 Sept 2019)

I’d like to own either Hershey’s or Tiffany’s if it’s the right price, wouldn’t you? It’s just a question of price. Of course they are good companies …” Charlie Munger, 2018 DJCO ASM Ticker: NYSE: TIFIndustry: Luxury jewelry and specialty retailerCurrent Price: US$91.88 (27 September 2019)Target Price: US$120 (~31% upside)Market Cap: US$11.1 billionP/E: 20.0x LTM …

Tiffany Releases Holiday Sales 2019 – China consumers stay home, but continue spending on luxury

We are encouraged by TIF holiday sales release on a Friday 18 January 2019. Shares are trading up to $89 per share which is 13% above our original $79 entry price a few weeks ago in December 2018. We are longer-term holders of this timeless brand and see value up to $125 per share, although …

Tiffany (NYSE:TIF) – Fundamentally attractive business with a timeless brand

Fundamentally attractive business with a timeless brand Market Cap and EV of ~$9.5bn, dividend yield c.1.9% Fundamentally attractive business with dominant luxury position, global presence and pricing power Timeless brand (est. 1837), enshrined in history through the 1961 movie “Breakfast at Tiffany’s” (priceless, wide moat) Currently focused on improving store experience, refreshed marketing and advancing …

China Pet Food – Is Private Equity barking up the wrong tree?

Deal activity at an all-time high: There have been more than 44 M&A deals in 2018 so far, with multiples reaching north of 25x EBITDA Significant Private Equity interest in the sector with boasts 90% recurring sales, high margins and opportunities across the value chain and in adjacencies (e.g. pet tech and pet health) Corporates …